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As volatility remains exceptionally high, the current strategy continues to be cautious and flexible. From a trend perspective, it is suspicious that the euro dollar has failed to extend below 1.2332 given the external opportunities for this to occur (weaker equities, persistently soft commodities). However, the bias for the moment...
Last week sees a downside test followed by a consolidation above main weekly supports. This week open price is below 1.2710 cluster support. Expected trading range for coming weeks extends from 1.2390 to 1.2890. To the upside, while above 1.2490 support, a bullish rebound is possible towards minor resistance at...
The US Dollar looks set for near-term loses as a correction in deeply oversold risky assets sees capital flow out of the safe-haven currency, bolstering the forex majors. USDJPY looks to be an exception, with the Japanese Yen also likely to lose ground as risk trends retrace recent moves.
Still in a holding pattern, 'triangle' consolidation below retracement resistance. We continue to feel there is another downside move due by the end of this year as the 'carry trade' unwinds further and the credit crunch affects more areas of business and daily life. As for rallies, these ought to...
Positioning is neutral for most currenies, suggesting that the US dollar may continue strengthening. The composite COT has dropped from high levels, which warns of a top. However, with speculative longs gradually decreasing and now back to more levels, confidence in a top is low.
Time is needed to restore confidence among both consumers and businesses, as the Treasury and the Fed are expecting banks the use some of the money of the rescue package to promote credit to the middleclass. Macroeconomics events will be attentively watched, while the U.S. dollar is again testing key...
Forex market volatility has remained high, but many of the major currency pairs have simply range-traded between key support and resistance levels. Event risk for the US dollar, British pound, and Canadian dollar will pick up quite a bit this week, providing potential for breakouts across the majors.
There is something slightly askew with a market that rallies the dollar on bad American economic news and sells the greenback on positive US developments. But such has often been the case since the dollar began its long climb to respectability back in July. This inverse relationship was particularly evident...
The minutes of the BoE and the US Fed's last interest rate setting meetings are published on Wednesday. Both are likely to show strong support for the last round of interest rate cuts, given the worsening global economic backdrop and the growing possibility that inflation may drop sharply, undershooting targets....
Sterling has fallen sharply in the past year, down by 20% on the trade-weighted index. The fall against the dollar and the euro has been as deep or deeper, with depreciation of 29% and 16%, respectively. What is going on and how low can sterling go against the dollar and...
Sterling still in a downtrend as we can see strong supply in the market, based on technical indicators like RSI, which is in a downtrend and giving us a clear bearish signal, MACD crosses the signal line and is pointing downwards. Bollinger gives us a selling signal by closing the...
Housing starts declined by 6.3% mom to 817k in September, after having gone down by 8.1% and 12.9% in the previous months. Given that building permits are at an even lower level and homes for sale at a record-high level, housing starts have not yet bottomed out, and we forecast...
The RBS purchasing managers' index for the German and EMU manufacturing sector will probably have continued deteriorating in November, just like most of the correlated business climate indicators. French consumer spending is expected to have decreased in October, because consumer confidence deteriorated. The EMU trade balance is likely to have...
The latest IMM data covers the week from 4 to 11 November. The already substantial net short GBP/USD position was extended further. Speculative investorsÂ’ net GBP/USD position now stands at its lowest level since mid-2002, reflecting a belief that GBP could drop even further against USD.
Range trading and consolidative price activities are set to dominate EUR nearer term as a failure ahead of the 1.2330 level, representing its YTD low has now pushed the pair into a sideways trading range. This is coming on the back of a break out to the downside from its...
Commonly in recessions, actual figures are weaker than consensus more often than stronger than expectations. For example, Street analysts look for a minuscule uptick in Japanese GDP following a drop of 3.0% saar during the second quarter. But in light of a 5.1% annualized drop of industrial production last quarter,...
Is England the next Iceland? The way cable is trading it certainly feels that way. The decline of GBP has been nothing short of stunning. Just 7 months ago the unit was holding the 2.000 handle but this week it broke the 1.50 level. Back in 2006 and 2007 when...
For weeks we've been discussing how risk appetite, or the lack of it, has been driving price action throughout the forex markets to the benefit of the lowest yielding major currencies: the US dollar and Japanese yen. The strength of the greenback has been all the more surprising given the...
Sustained relief in this environment does not seem likely and rallies will remain selling opportunities over the next several weeks at the minimum. This weekend's G-20 meeting in Washington is not expected to produce any concrete initiatives (see below) and the risk is that another spasm of despondency (i.e. selling)...
In currencies the week began with risk appetite back in center stage following the Chinese government's weekend announcement of a $575B stimulus package. The carry-related pairs reacted to the news with strength while the greenback remained mixed. While commodities began on firm note, helping the CAD and AUD head higher,...
 
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